التباين المكاني للإعالة الحقيقية
في محافظة بغداد للمدة
(1997 - 2017م)
أطروحة تقدّمت بها الطالبة
حلا زوين محمد سلطان الجبوري
إلى مجلس كلية التّربية للعلوم الإنسانية - ابن رشد / جامعة بغداد
وهي جزء من متطلبات نيل شهادة دكتوراه فلسفة آداب في
الجغرافية البشرية
بإشراف
الأستاذ الدكتور
ندى نجيب سلمان
1440هـ بغداد 2018م
Spatial Variation of Real Dependency in
Baghdad Governorate for the Period
(1997-2017)
Dissertation submitted by
Hala Zwain Mohammad Sultan Al Jabouri
To the Council of the Faculty of Education for
Humanities, Ibn Rashid, University of Baghdad,
which is part of the requirements for Ph.D.
philosophy in human geography
Supervision
Prof. Dr.
Nada Najib Salman
2018 Baghdad 1440 AH
Abstract
Due to the importance of studying the real dependency in the governorate of Baghdad according to the geographical dimension in general and the population dimension in particular, the study entitled ( the spatial variation for real dependency in Baghdad Governorate for a period (1997 and 2017) as a scientific effort to analyze the population phenomenon according to research literature and analysis in the geography of the population, which deals with the analysis of the spatial differences of the studied phenomena and the level of the administrative units of the study area (Baghdad Governorate) In addition to studying the temporal variability of the studied phenomenon and the knowledge of the change that occurred between 1997 and 2017, the study arranged with four chapters began with the first chapter (geographical distribution of the population in the broad age groups, dependants and breadwinners in the governorate of Baghdad, which chapter II included (The growth rate of dependants and breadwinners and their specific composition in the governorate of Baghdad; Chapter III has dealt with (rates of economically actives and real dependency in Baghdad Governorate) chapter IV contains the variables related to real dependency and their quantitative analysis in the Baghdad Governorate of 2017.
The study reached a number of conclusions such as :
-The study showed that the real dependency rate for the governorate of Baghdad fell in 2017 (145,3) in 1997 (166, 5) by a difference of (-21, 2).
-The study showed that the size of the dependent group (15-64 years) on the size of the breadwinners (14 years and under 65 years and older for two year of study (1997 – 2017), reaching (3164620) and (4338026) people respectively.
-The study showed that the rate of growth of the breadwinners population (15-64 years) amounted (2.1%) On the growth rate of dependants (young and old) in Baghdad Governorate (1.39) and (1.41) respectively.
-The study showed that the real dependency rate for the governorate of Baghdad in 1997 was (166.5) while it fell to (145.3) in 2017.
-The ratio of breadwinners amounted (749, 1) male per 100 females for 1997 and (437, 3) per 100 females for 2017 was higher than the ratio of the breadwinners amounted 103,1 male per 100 females for 1997 and (116,1) male per 100 females for 2017.
-The results of the statistical analysis of variables relevant to the real dependency rate confirmed that there is a very strong and positive relationship with each of the following variables (X1) unemployed and X4, Young and X5, older and (X7) widowed women (with a morale level of 0.01, while noting that the relationship between the approved variable (y), independent variables (Xi) and independent variables (X2) The average size of the family (X6) graduates of the undergraduate certificate and above is a strong relationship but with a lower morale level than the previous one and with a level of morale (0.05) While noting that the relationship is very weak between the approved variable and the independent variable (X3) The displaced have not demonstrated the moral of that relationship statistically.
The study suggested:.
-The need to create jobs by activating the role of the private sector in cooperation with the public sector in order to absorb a portion of the breadwinners who have the responsibility of supporting dependants and thereby reduce the dependency burden.
- Re-employment of industrial factories and enterprises, especially after their cessation in 2003 to 2018, which affected the high number of unemployed in the governorate and thus led to a rise in the real dependency rate.
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