أثر التغير المناخي في تغيير مواقع التيارات النفاثة فوق العراق وانعكاساته المناخية - عبد العباس عواد لفته الوائلي - رسالة ماجسـتير 2011م

      هدفت الدراسة إلى تحليل أثر التغيرات المناخية العالمية في تغيير مواقع التيارات النفاثة فوق العراق وانعكاساته المناخية ، ومدى تأثير تلك التغيرات في تكرار ومدة بقاء التيارين وتحديداً التيار النفاث شبه المداري وشبه القطبي فوق العراق وتم ذلك من خلال دراسة وتحليل طبيعة التغيرات التي طرأت على تغير مواقع التيارات النفاثة فوق العراق من خلال معرفة مدة بقاء وتكرار التيارات النفاثة ومقدار التغير زمانياً ومكانياً , لما لهما من تأثير على طقس العراق ومناخه,وانعكاس هذا التغيير على تغير عناصر المناخ وظواهره والمتمثلة بدرجات الحرارة (الاعتيادية ,العظمى، الصغرى)  والرطوبة النسبية والعواصف الغبارية ،. وتم الاعتماد في هذه الدراسة على بيانات لخمس محطات مناخية سطحية هي (الموصل ,كركوك، بغداد، الرطبة،  البصرة) للمدة (1950- 2005 ) وكذلك الاعتماد على سرعة الرياح  العليا بعد استخراج سرعة التيارين النفاثين عند مستوى ضغطي 200 و 300 مليباراً للمدة(1950 – 2010), وتم اختيار ثمان محطات عليا لثلاث مناطق فوق العراق(بواقع محطتين لكل منطقة ) متمثلة بالمنطقة الجنوبية والوسطى والشمالية ومنطقة ضابطة على الحدود العراقية التركية الإيرانية, اعتماداً على دوائر العرض وخطوط الطول. وتم التوصل لذلك باستخدام طريقة الأوساط المتحركة Average) Moving) لبيان الاتجاه ومقدار التغير  وعلاقة الارتباط  ( correlation) بين مدة بقاء وتكرار كل من التيارين النفاثين مع كل عنصر من هذه العناصر .

.وتكونت الرسالة من عدة فصول تمثلت بما يلي :-

    تناول الفصل الأول منها الإطار النظري, كما تناولت الدراسة التغيرات المناخية العالمية وأسباب تغير المناخ العالمي  ( الطبيعية والبشرية) والدلائل والمؤشرات على حدوث تغيرات مناخية , والتأثيرات المستقبلية لتغير المناخ,كذلك العلاقة بين التيارات النفاثة والتغيرات المناخية ثم تناولت الدراسة بعض الظواهر الجوية المؤثرة على مناخ العراق والتغيرات التي طرأت عليها مثل درجات الحرارة (الاعتيادية والصغرى والعظمى) والرطوبة النسبية والعواصف الغبارية. ثم تناولت موضوع التيارات النفاثة(تعريفها , أنواعها , العوامل المؤثرة في تكوينها, خصائصها , أثرها على الظواهر الجوية العليا

وخلصت الدراسة إلى أن للتغير المناخي تأثير على تغير مواقع التيارات النفاثة فوق العراق (التيار النفاث شبه المداري والتيار النفاث شبه القطبي) زمانياً ومكانياً وهذا كان له الأثر المباشر وغير المباشر على الظواهر والعناصر المناخية فوق العراق مما أدى إلى تغير طقس العراق ومناخه نحو الارتفاع في درجات الحرارة و وانخفاض الرطوبة النسبية وخاصة محطات الموصل والرطبة والبصرة التي سجلت انخفاضا لمعظم الأشهر وانخفاض معدلات العواصف الغبارية لمعظم الأشهر, وخاصة في الدورات الأخيرة ولجميع المحطات.

 Abstract

      This study is an attempt to analyze the effect of the world climate in changing of the jet streams locations over Iraq and its climate reflection on the weather of Iraq and its climate and how the effect of these changes in frequency and time of staying jet streams over Iraq. It has been done through the study changes that happened on changing jet streams locations and exactly sub-tropical and sub-polar jet stream .through knowledge  of time for staying and frequency how it changes ( time and place ) due to it affects the weather of Iraq and its climate and reflection of this change on changing elements like temperature, (normal-minimum-maximum) relative humidity and storm dust .

This study depends on data four climate stations AL Musil, Kirkuk ,Baghdad, Rutba and Basrah from 1950 to 2005. I also depend on upper wind speed after separating the sped of jet streams at the level ( 200 , 300 millibar) from 1950 to 2010.

This study based on data from eight upper stations for three places over Iraq ( two station per area). It includes southern area ,medium area , northern area and other area over the boards of  Iraq – Turkey depending on ( circles of width)and (lines of length).

This has been done by applying synoptic analysis style and wind analysis on the changes (data) surface and upper through to explain direction  and average of changing and correlation between time of staying frequency for the two jet streams with each element.

This study shows  that temperature is getting higher because of the climate change that played a great role in a affecting on local environment and changes that happen.

This study has assured that main reason in change of  jet streams location is high temperature which helps to change the climate phenomena (cyclones , anti cyclones ) that is not as in past period.

This research contains seven chapters as following :

1-                First chapter: Includes study frame that has limiting the problem of study and its aim.

Its excuses and method of workshop.

Its includes previous studies related to the same subject and curricula  followed in writing research .

2-                Second chapter :It studies the world climate changes and reasons of changing (physical and humanity),and the reference to climate change and future effects for changing climate ,the relation between jet streams and climate change ,it studies phenomena affecting the climate of Iraq and changes that happened .

3-                Third chapter: It shows subject of jet streams (definition ,kinds ,factors that affect forming it (waves ) and (cyclones) jet stream from.

4-                Fourth chapter: It studies the average of jet streams speed (sub tropical and sub polar) over Iraq ,after distinguishing jet streams speed from wind speed over Iraq .that equals (30 m/s, and more ) and getting climate cycle (11 years) the highest overage for jet stream speed over Iraq.

5-                Fifth chapter : it shows changes over times jet streams locations for each month and between climate cycles from 1950 to 2010.

6-                Sixth chapter: it studies changing of place (sub tropical and sub polar jet streams)over Iraq through limiting the days of staying and frequency for the jet streams from 1950 to 2010.through getting the average of changing for climate cycle and the whole change over area from Iraq(southern ,medium and northern) .

7-                Seven chapter: it deals with reflections changing on jet streams locations over Iraq through   getting correlation between average of staying and frequency for jet streams and among average temperatures degrees( normal ,mini ,maxi),relative humidity and storm dust over Iraq.

The abstract of the study is that changing of  climate has an effect on changing  jet streams location over Iraq (sub tropical and sub polar) time and place that is the direct effect and indirect on phenomena and climate elements over Iraq.  That leads to the conclusion.

This study aims to analyze the effect of the world climate changes. In relation to draught stations over Iraq and the climate reflection on the weather of Iraq and effect of these change in frequency and time of the draughts staying over Iraq. that's through knowledge of changes nature that happened on changing stations of draughts on Iraq .

Change of the weather of Iraq and its climate towards higher temperature degrees .relative humidity and storms dust except Basrah station that records lowering in relative humidity and storms dust especially last climate cycles. And correlation between jet streams and elements haven't appeared clearly in its behavior .

 Conclusions:

1. Normal Temperature Directions::      

A increase in the amount of Normal air Temperature was recorded in all the stations in all the months except in   Baghdad station  which showed an decrease in September, October, November, January, March and June as well as in Mosul station in February .

2. Minimum Temperature Directions:      

High degrees in all the stations and in all months except in Mosul station in February and Baghdad station which recorded low degrees in September, November and February. Rutba station in, November, January, February ,April and may.    

 3. Maximum Temperature Directions:     

. High degrees of temperature in all the stations:

A-    in Mosul station which showed high degrees in march and June.

B-  High degrees of temperature in Kirkuk station in all months except in October and November low degrees.

C-     High degrees in Baghdad station in all months except in October ,November December and January   

D-    in Rutba station record High degrees in all months except in September, December , January, February and march.

E-     in Basrah station record High degrees in all months except in January, February and march.

4. Relative Humidity Directions:

A. Low humidity in all months in the stations of Mosul.

B. in the stations of Kirkuk recorded High humidity in all months except in march and April.

C- recorded Baghdad station High in all months except in November and May.

D- in Rutba station record Low humidity in all months arrived(1,8- ,10,4- C

E- Decrease Relative Humidity in all months in Basrah station ,between (7.2- ,21%)

5. Dost storms Directions:

A- Decrease Dost storms in all months in the stations of Mosul, except in November , December and February .

B- Increase Dost storms in all months in the stations of Kirkuk, except in November , December and February .

C- - Decrease Dost storms in all months in Baghdad station, except in September ,May and July.

D- Decrease Dost storms in all months in Rutba station, except in April, ,May and August.

Decrease Dost storms in all months in Basrah station, except in

 November.

The sub polar and sub tropical Jet streams:

8-                It studies the average of jet streams speed (sub tropical and sub polar) over Iraq ,after distinguishing jet streams speed from wind speed over Iraq .that equals (30 m/s, and more ) and getting climate cycle (11 years) the highest overage for jet stream speed over Iraq between (1950-2010).

2-to overwhelm sub tropical jet stream all month and all study over Iraq because it stay a long time  (29.6 days ) in January while the sub polar stay (25.9 days) too

3-the positive change of  stay over Iraq to sub tropical jet stream but the sub polar was negative in all month. specifically in winter season.

4-the sub tropical jet stream to be distinguished by high frequency in wind speed and passive in Iraq weather and climate because the climate change.

5- the sub polar jet stream to be distinguished bya few passive in Iraq weather and climate because it a far away form Iraq.

6- the correlation between the jet streams and elements(Temperature degree, Relative Humidity and Dost storms) its non clear and hesitating, because the jet streams became effective an directed on climate and wethear.